2020 NBA Playoffs: Jazz vs. Nuggets odds, picks, Game 5 predictions from model on 59-33 roll

Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz put their commanding 3-1 lead on the line in Game 5 against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday evening. After a series-opening victory, the Nuggets have dropped three games in a row, leaving Mike Malone’s team to face elimination if they cannot produce a victory in this matchup. Gary Harris (hip) is questionable to play for Denver, with Will Barton (knee) out of action. For the Jazz, Ed Davis (knee) and Justin Wright-Foreman (not with team) are out.

Tip-off for this 2020 NBA Playoffs matchup is 6:30 p.m. ET at HP Field House in Orlando. Utah is a three-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Jazz odds at William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 221. Before making any Jazz vs. Nuggets picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It’s also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Jazz vs. Nuggets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Nuggets vs. Jazz:

  • Nuggets vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -3
  • Nuggets vs. Jazz over-under: 221 points
  • Nuggets vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -150, Nuggets +130
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 6-6 against the spread in the last 12 games
  • UTAH: The Jazz are 6-6 against the spread in the last 12 games

Why the Nuggets can cover

While the Nuggets are struggling on defense in the series, Denver is creating efficient shots on a consistent basis. The Nuggets are scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions, a clip that would have led the entire NBA during the regular season, and Denver’s offensive surge is keyed by Jamal Murray. The talented guard is averaging 28.0 points, 6.5 assists and 6.0 rebounds per game, and the Nuggets are also posting the best offensive rebound rate in the postseason, grabbing 32.3 percent of available rebounds after missed shots. 

Defensively, the Nuggets were pedestrian during the regular season, allowing 111 points per 100 possessions. In this series, however, Denver is likely due for some positive regression, as it has allowed a startling 131 points per 100 possessions against a normally solid, yet unspectacular, Utah offense. 

Why the Jazz can cover 

Utah’s offense is operating at maximum capacity at the moment, both from a team-wide standpoint and with regard to Mitchell. The Jazz are leading the NBA Playoffs in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 131 points per 100 possessions, and Mitchell is producing a blistering 39.5 points and 5.8 assists per game against Denver. Offensive rebounding is not usually a strength of Utah but, in this matchup, the Jazz are taking an advantage of a below-average defensive rebounding team in Denver by snatching 32.0 percent of available offensive rebounds. 

Defensively, the Jazz haven’t been quite as effective as they were in the regular season, with some of that credit given to Denver’s potent offense. Still, Utah ranked in the top 12 of the league in points allowed per possession this season, with Rudy Gobert protecting the rim at a level that is virtually unmatched in today’s NBA.

How to make Jazz vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Mitchell and Murray projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Jazz vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Jazz spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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